Ashby B, Smith CA & Thompson RN. Non-pharmaceutical interventions and the emergence of pathogen variants. medRxiv. 2021.05.27.21257938.
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing and contact tracing, are important public health measures that can reduce pathogen transmission. In addition to playing a crucial role in suppressing transmission, NPIs influence pathogen evolution by mediating mutation supply, restricting the availability of susceptible hosts, and altering the strength of selection for novel variants. However, it is unclear how NPIs might affect the emergence of novel variants that are able to escape pre-existing immunity (partially or fully), are more transmissible, or cause greater mortality. We analyse a stochastic two-strain epidemiological model to determine how the strength of NPIs affects the emergence of variants with similar or contrasting life-history characteristics to the wildtype. We show that, while stronger and timelier NPIs generally reduce the likelihood of variant emergence, it is possible for more transmissible variants with high cross immunity to have a greater probability of emerging at intermediate levels of NPIs. This is because intermediate levels of NPIs allow an epidemic of the wildtype that is neither too small (facilitating high mutation supply), nor too large (leaving a large pool of susceptible hosts), to prevent a novel variant becoming established in the host population However, since one cannot predict the characteristics of a variant, the best strategy to prevent emergence is likely to be implementation of strong, timely NPIs.